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Saturday, March 25, 2023

Bitcoin Price May Still Drop 40% After FTX’s ‘Lehman Moment’: Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) noticed additional rejection to $17,000 on Nov. 18 as jittery markets bore extra fallout from FTX.

BTC/USD 1 hour candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC will get a $12,000 value goal

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed that BTC/USD didn’t flip $17,000 to help, a pattern that has been in place for nearly every week.

The pair, like main altcoins, remained firmly shackled by chilly ft over the FTX debacle and its fallout for varied crypto companies.

For analysts, the outlook remained grim, with already gloomy forecasts worsening in mild of latest occasions.

“This underperformance throughout all crypto belongings is right here to remain till many of the uncertainty has cleared up, probably solely across the flip of the yr,” buying and selling agency QCP Capital wrote in its newest round to Telegram channel subscribers that day.

In a prolonged market roundup, QCP wrote that its value forecasts for each Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) now needed to drop to replicate the affect of FTX.

Updating an Elliott Wave theory-based forecast from June, he confirmed that BTC/USD now had a goal of $12,000 and ETH/USD $800.

“As a aspect be aware, crypto markets have been buying and selling equally to commodities for the reason that 2017 excessive, with prolonged Wave 5s being the longest wave,” the put up added.

“Therefore, such potential value motion with new lows within the new yr could be attribute of earlier bear market sell-offs.”

An accompanying chart highlighted the divergence between cryptocurrencies and shares in November, with the t-correlation between them firmly shaken due to underperforming cryptocurrencies.

BTC/USD vs. ETH/USD vs. S&P 500 chart. Source: QCP Capital

Meanwhile, well-liked dealer and analyst Cantering Clark identified that if the present bear market in dangerous belongings had been to repeat the worldwide monetary disaster, there would nonetheless be big losses.

“The Lehman chapter was the climax of the 2008 monetary disaster. Qualitatively it was background materials, however the market stopped after which dedicated to go down 40%,” a part of a tweet. read.

“Never say by no means, and do not let your guard down.”

Annotated chart of the S&P 500. Source: Cantering Clark/Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, $13,500 has additionally change into a preferred draw back goal.

The crypto pie “is being minimize massively”

Continuing, QCP additionally raised issues about declining volumes and open curiosity (OI) on centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) exchanges.

Related: US Cryptocurrency Exchanges Lead Bitcoin Exodus: Over $1.5B in BTC Withdrawn in One Week

“So far, CEX derivatives buying and selling volumes have been hit the toughest. Combined futures OI is now again to pre-2021 ranges, a large step again for the business,” he wrote.

Bitcoin futures open curiosity chart. Source: QCP Capital

On the topic of DEXs, he mentioned that the information “implies that your complete crypto pie is being minimize massively.”

“Overall, DeFi TVL is now lower than 1/4 of final yr’s peak!” the put up is summarized together with extra explanatory graphics.

“Even DEXs, which might be anticipated to achieve extra, have solely seen volumes rise to July/Aug ranges, even with all of the emergency tokens/stables/chain swap due after FTX.”

DEX volumes chart. Source: QCP Capital

The views and opinions expressed listed below are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially replicate the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, you need to do your individual analysis when making a call.